Africa remains one of global aviation’s strongest long-term growth opportunities, but rising passenger demand alone will not make its airlines investable. Passenger traffic across Africa is forecast to grow strongly over the next two decades, while the continent remains significantly under-served relative to its population. However, for many African airlines, the more immediate constraint is no longer identifying demand, but securing the aircraft and capital required to serve it sustainably.
Speaking at AviaDev Africa in Gaborone, Botswana, Tristan Brouard, Associate Director at ACC Aviation, highlighted a central paradox facing African aviation: strong long-term growth fundamentals alongside mounting financial and operational pressure.
“Africa does not have a demand problem. Africa has a bankability problem,” Brouard said. “The opportunity is clear, but airlines must be able to demonstrate that their growth plans are financially sustainable, operationally credible and capable of meeting the requirements of lenders, investors and lessors.”
The challenge is being intensified by a constrained global aircraft supply market. Manufacturer backlogs and delivery delays have reduced near-term availability, while strong demand for narrowbody and regional aircraft has pushed lease rates higher. Financing costs also remain materially above the levels seen before the recent interest-rate cycle.
Higher funding costs, constrained aircraft availability and increased investor return requirements are all feeding into lease pricing. For many African operators, the impact is compounded by elevated operating costs and additional credit, jurisdictional, foreign-exchange and asset-recovery risk assessments.
Recent traffic data illustrates the resilience of passenger demand. According to the International Air Transport Association, Africa was the only region to record positive year-on-year passenger traffic growth in April 2026, increasing by 2.8%, while global traffic declined by 3.4% amid significant disruption in the Middle East.
Boeing forecasts African passenger traffic growth of approximately 6.4% annually through 2043, with the continent’s commercial fleet expected to more than double over the same period. Home to nearly one-fifth of the world’s population, Africa accounts for only around 2% of global passenger traffic. The imbalance illustrates the scale of the market opportunity still available.
Yet strong demand does not automatically translate into financially sustainable airlines. Profitability remains constrained, with African carriers continuing to face some of the highest operating costs in global aviation.
Fuel costs at many African airports remain among the highest globally, reflecting supply-chain constraints, limited refining capacity and import dependency. Airlines also face comparatively high taxes, airport charges and navigation fees, placing further pressure on already thin operating margins. The result is an industry operating on exceptionally thin margins. IATA’s latest outlook forecasts African airlines will generate only a modest profit per passenger in 2026, highlighting how little financial resilience exists to absorb higher fuel prices, financing costs or operational disruption.
However, Brouard challenges that assumption, “Global capital exists. The challenge is not a shortage of funding. The challenge is becoming investable.”
This is not a reflection of demand or entrepreneurial ambition. Rather, it reflects the practical challenges many African airlines continue to face in accessing competitively priced aircraft finance.
Increasingly, the discussion is shifting away from why African airlines struggle to access capital and towards what makes an airline financeable. Governance, transparency, realistic fleet planning and disciplined financial management are becoming increasingly important in determining how investors and lenders evaluate growth opportunities.
In 2026, the African Development Bank launched its Integrated Aviation Transformation Program (IATP), a Continent-wide initiative designed to improve access to aviation financing, strengthen connectivity and mobilise private-sector investment into the aviation ecosystem. The programme reflects a broader recognition that improving access to capital requires strengthening the investment readiness of African aviation, not simply increasing demand.
At the same time, aviation stakeholders continue to advocate for wider implementation of the Cape Town Convention, which provides internationally recognised protection for aircraft financiers and lessors. Effective implementation of the Cape Town Convention can improve legal certainty for financiers and lessors, supporting stronger investor confidence and potentially reducing financing costs over time.
Organisations such as AFRAA are also strengthening collaboration between airlines, lessors, OEMs, commercial lenders and development finance institutions to improve the overall investment readiness of African carriers.
Collectively, these efforts seek to address one of the sector’s most persistent obstacles: the African risk premium.
Many lessors continue to price additional jurisdictional and credit risk into aircraft placements across parts of Africa. As a result, some airlines face higher financing and leasing costs than peers in Europe, North America or Asia. Investors and lessors must evaluate factors such as asset recoverability, regulatory consistency, foreign exchange availability and the repatriation of lease payments. Increasingly, the airlines that attract capital most successfully are those able to demonstrate that these risks are understood and appropriately mitigated.
“Capital follows credibility,” Brouard explains. “Airlines that demonstrate strong governance, transparent ownership structures and disciplined financial management place themselves in a stronger position to access financing on more competitive terms.” Rather than relying on a single funding source, many African airlines are increasingly exploring combinations of commercial debt, operating leases, finance leases, development finance institutions and strategic equity partners to support fleet expansion.
Financial performance remains fundamental to every financing decision. However, governance, transparency, strategic planning and risk management increasingly influence how lenders, lessors and investors assess that financial performance. As aircraft availability remains constrained and capital remains selective, airlines that prepare well in advance will be best positioned to secure both.
Through advisory assignments involving airlines, financiers, lessors and investors across Africa and the Middle East, ACC Aviation is increasingly seeing financing discussions begin long before an aircraft is selected. Fleet strategy, financial preparedness, governance and lender engagement are becoming integral components of successful aircraft acquisitions.
According to Brouard, the role of an aviation advisor is evolving beyond aircraft sourcing. “Successful fleet growth increasingly depends on helping airlines become investment-ready before they enter the market for aircraft.”
For years, the focus centred on how to stimulate demand and expand connectivity. Today, the more pressing question is how to build investable airlines. As Africa’s aviation industry matures, the defining competitive advantage will not simply be access to demand, it will be the ability to attract capital.
ACC Aviation continues to work with airlines, lessors, investors and financial institutions across Africa to help structure fleet acquisition strategies that improve access to capital while supporting long-term commercial sustainability.
For any enquiries, please contact consulting@accaviation.com.
